China's nuclear buildup is a ticking time bomb, and Keir Starmer's silence on the matter is concerning. Starmer's tentative pivot to the Dragon Throne has played well in Beijing, but it's a risky move that could have dire consequences. While Starmer's silence may be understandable given the UK's own nuclear expansion, it's crucial to address the growing nuclear threat head-on.
The world is on the brink of nuclear Armageddon, with the Doomsday Clock ticking closer to midnight than ever before. The uncontrolled proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is the most immediate and existential threat to humanity, surpassing climate change, global hunger, and the threat of pandemic disease. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists warns that nuclear and other global risks are escalating fast and in unprecedented ways.
Nuclear disarmament diplomacy is at a standstill, with the non-proliferation treaty (NPT) review conference in New York expected to fail to reach consensus. The last remaining arms control treaty, New Start, will expire on Thursday, leaving the US and Russia without a limit on their strategic nuclear forces. Meanwhile, a dangerous international nuclear arms race is raging unchecked, with nearly all nuclear-armed states pursuing intensive nuclear modernization programs.
China, in particular, is a cause for concern. With an estimated 600 warheads, China is lagging behind the US and Russia, but it's catching up quickly. Since 2023, China's nuclear arsenal has grown by about 100 new warheads a year, and it could potentially have at least as many ICBMs as either Russia or the US by the turn of the decade. Beijing offers no explanation or rationale for this dramatic surge and rejects multilateral arms control talks.
China's criticism that the US and others ignore their NPT commitment to pursue disarmament is accurate, albeit hypocritical. However, China's position that countries with the largest nuclear arsenals must make the first move by unilaterally making "drastic and substantive reductions" is a valid point. Until then, China will keep its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security, according to an official white paper published in November.
The US is also worried about China's nuclear buildup. The Pentagon warned that China's historic military buildup has made the US homeland increasingly vulnerable, highlighting a more attack-ready, "hair-trigger" nuclear posture. It also claimed that China has recently installed about 100 ICBMs in silos in northern China and is testing its ability to strike US forces in the Pacific.
The question remains: What is Xi up to? China's nuclear weapons drive could be a question of status, with Xi wanting to match or surpass the US and Russia. Or it could be a genuine fear of being attacked, as Xi told Starmer that "rampant" powers, meaning Trump, were following "the law of the jungle." However, considering his legacy, Xi may believe that nuclear muscle-flexing could help him conquer Taiwan and fulfill his ambition to make China the leading superpower.
Despite his emperor-like sway, Xi is an insecure, fallible, and unimaginative politician not immune to global trends and pressures. He sees Trump's US upgrading nuclear weapons and attacking non-nuclear Iran and Venezuela, as well as Russia's Vladimir Putin threatening nuclear war with the west as he tries to illegally seize Ukraine. It must be tempting to follow that example.
Adding to the mystery, there are suspicions that Xi may not be wholly in control of China's armed forces. The sensational sacking of Gen Zhang Youxia, second only to himself in the military hierarchy, remains a mystery. Zhang, a grizzled veteran, is supposedly accused of disloyalty to his less war-experienced boss and of leaking nuclear secrets to the US.
Is it possible that the two men disagreed over Xi's bullishly confrontational nuclear and Taiwan policies? Xi previously purged rocket force commanders, but is still struggling to pull the generals into line. In a cold war echo, Dr. Strangelove's disconcerting question recurs: whose finger on the button?
Starmer's silence on the issue is unsurprising, given the UK's own nuclear expansion. Under his leadership, the UK is expanding its nuclear strike force by buying US F-35A nuclear-capable fighter jets and allowing the US to store nuclear bombs at RAF Lakenheath for the first time in 20 years. Britain's unspoken message to Xi is stark: bombs away!
